This map from Zata3 illustrates the turnout in each voting precinct in the Democratic Mayoral Primary run-off election on Tuesday. It is a stunning picture.
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Showing posts with label Zata 3. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zata 3. Show all posts
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Brad Chism's Post-Runoff Analysis
From Brad Chism of Zata 3, a political consulting firm serving Democrats and progressive organizations, here is an interesting analysis of the Democratic runoff for Jackson Mayor:
Friends,
We’ve had lots of calls and emails asking for a post election analysis. Attached are maps that tell the story well. Here’s our Monday-morning quarterback analysis about the margin of victory. And yes, here too is my admission that I had no clue that the margin of victory would be so large.
Friends,
We’ve had lots of calls and emails asking for a post election analysis. Attached are maps that tell the story well. Here’s our Monday-morning quarterback analysis about the margin of victory. And yes, here too is my admission that I had no clue that the margin of victory would be so large.
We started with two credible candidates in the runoff—Black AND White voters would agree that both were capable of running the city (as contrasted with several other candidates on the ballot on May 2nd) No matter who won, we would be better off.
Frank Melton had been vanquished in the Primary. One cynic observed to me that NE Jackson “had won” already. The anti-Melton angst was satiated. White voter turnout lagged in the runoff.
Harvey Johnson had been Jackson’s first Black Mayor. He wasn’t beaten four years ago because he was too close to White business leaders or had embarrassed the city. Johnson lost to a rock star financed with a wad of cash from NE Jackson.
Johnson was, and continues to be, a likeable fellow. Black voters didn’t despise Johnson in 2005. They just thought they had traded up.
Harvey Johnson had a very compelling stump speech and a theme that resonated. “I believe in second chances. I believe in a second-chance God…” How does one counter that without coming off as cold and unforgiving?
Johnson could point to several tangible projects that began under his watch that had come to fruition, mitigating the criticism that he had been ineffective.
There wasn’t enough of a visual contrast between the “Old vs. New” between Johnson and Crisler. The former mayor was 62 years old, not 82. He had a great line to deflect the criticism. “I know I am sixty two because I do 62 push ups every morning…”
In the end, the vote was more racially polarized than any of us would have hoped. But I suspect that over the past four years Mr. Johnson has thought a lot about the necessity of an inclusive approach to governing.
In the end, the vote was more racially polarized than any of us would have hoped. But I suspect that over the past four years Mr. Johnson has thought a lot about the necessity of an inclusive approach to governing.
All the best
Brad
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Weekend Zatapulse Survey
Zata 3 has released the results from its Zatapulse Survey taken on May 1, 2009:
Harvey Johnson 26%
Crisler 26%
Melton 18%
Horhn 11%
Fair 4%
Others 7%
Undecided 8%
The results from the Zata 3 and Clarion-Ledger polls are similar with respect to the order of candidate preference, and roughly speaking, the chasm between the top two "ABM" candidates and the rest. If these polls are anywhere near correct, the best chance to oust Mayor Melton in the first primary is to vote for either Harvey Johnson or Marshand Crisler on Tuesday. A vote for Horhn and Fair will decrease the results for the two leaders, and thereby give Mr. Melton a chance to catch up with one of them. In 25 years of casting votes here, I have learned that ANYTHING can happen in a second primary in Mississippi. We don't need to take that risk.
Harvey Johnson 26%
Crisler 26%
Melton 18%
Horhn 11%
Fair 4%
Others 7%
Undecided 8%
The results from the Zata 3 and Clarion-Ledger polls are similar with respect to the order of candidate preference, and roughly speaking, the chasm between the top two "ABM" candidates and the rest. If these polls are anywhere near correct, the best chance to oust Mayor Melton in the first primary is to vote for either Harvey Johnson or Marshand Crisler on Tuesday. A vote for Horhn and Fair will decrease the results for the two leaders, and thereby give Mr. Melton a chance to catch up with one of them. In 25 years of casting votes here, I have learned that ANYTHING can happen in a second primary in Mississippi. We don't need to take that risk.
Clarion-Ledger Poll Echoes Zata 3 Data: The "Anyone But Melton" Choices are Crisler and Harvey Johnson
There has been no small controversy about the "ZataPulse" polls on the Jackson mayoral race. Various blog posts (from mostly anonymous sources) claimed that the methodology employed by Zata 3 President Brad Chism rendered the results inaccurate and misleading.
Today, Chism's critics may be silenced. The Clarion-Ledger published the results of a poll conducted by the Southern Research Group. According to today's C-L story, the results are:
Crisler was the favorite of 15.5 percent of voters, while Johnson was the choice of 14.4 percent. Incumbent Mayor Frank Melton checked in with 11 percent and state Sen. John Horhn followed with 7 percent.
Former Jackson Police Chief Robert Johnson and Hinds County Tax Collector Eddie Fair rounded out the measurable end of the poll, with 3.4 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. All other candidates came in with less than 1 percent.
As my post of April 28 disclosed, the ZataPulse results for April 24 were: Harvey Johnson 27%, Crisler 26%, Melton 19%, Horhn 11%, Fair 3%, Other Candidates 7%, Undecided 7%
The numbers are different, but the basic gist is the same: Former Mayor Johnson and Councilman Crisler have a decided edge in keeping incumbent Mayor Melton out of the second promary. Horhn and Robert Johnson sympathizers need to re-think their position -- taking votes away from Crisler or Harvey Johnson may have the result of allowing Melton to catch up with one of them. And in a second primary, anything can happen.
Today, Chism's critics may be silenced. The Clarion-Ledger published the results of a poll conducted by the Southern Research Group. According to today's C-L story, the results are:
Crisler was the favorite of 15.5 percent of voters, while Johnson was the choice of 14.4 percent. Incumbent Mayor Frank Melton checked in with 11 percent and state Sen. John Horhn followed with 7 percent.
Former Jackson Police Chief Robert Johnson and Hinds County Tax Collector Eddie Fair rounded out the measurable end of the poll, with 3.4 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. All other candidates came in with less than 1 percent.
As my post of April 28 disclosed, the ZataPulse results for April 24 were: Harvey Johnson 27%, Crisler 26%, Melton 19%, Horhn 11%, Fair 3%, Other Candidates 7%, Undecided 7%
The numbers are different, but the basic gist is the same: Former Mayor Johnson and Councilman Crisler have a decided edge in keeping incumbent Mayor Melton out of the second promary. Horhn and Robert Johnson sympathizers need to re-think their position -- taking votes away from Crisler or Harvey Johnson may have the result of allowing Melton to catch up with one of them. And in a second primary, anything can happen.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Is the Good Ship Melton Taking on Water?
Is the Melton re-election campaign losing steam? It may be, based on recent polling results released by Brad Chism, President of Zata 3. Brad's latest surveyed 507 telephone voter households across seven wards. Here were the results:
April 24th Zatapulse Survey
Harvey Johnson 27%
Crisler 26%
Melton 19%
Hohrn 11%
Fair 3%
Other Candidates 7%
Undecided 7%
Brad reminds us about the parameters of this poll:
Why we are doing this: We have several friends in the Jackson Mayor’s race but no candidates who are clients. We are intrigued by the dynamics of this race and have decided to do some survey work for public dissemination.
About the survey. This sample of 500+ voter phone households is a rough approximation of historical voter registration and turnout. While we do track the respondents self-identification by age, race, and gender we have not weighted the survey by these demographics or by voter frequency. . . . .
Methodology We used an interactive, automated call with keypad responses to record results. The numbers are scrambled and randomly dialed with a quota of respondents by ward. As the name suggests, our ZATAPULSE takes the pulse of the electorate. It is not an “MRI”. It is a useful tool for short surveys of this nature and we have used it for more than 200 races across the country. We employ a similar methodology as Survey USA or Rasmussen. Still, the tool has limits. We caution you that this race is fluid and that each candidate is likely to have a more robust, internal poll. Nonetheless, we are confident that this is the most accurate, timely information that is publicly available.
About Zata3 Zata3 is a political consulting firm for Democratic candidates and progressive causes. Company President Brad Chism splits time between his Washington, DC and Jackson, MS offices. For each of the last three years, Zata3 had won more awards by the AAPC for its telephone voter contact programs than any other firm in America. For more information, go to www.zata3.com
My two cents: Let's see what happens when the Federal trial kicks back into gear. Will it create pro-Melton backlash?
April 24th Zatapulse Survey
Harvey Johnson 27%
Crisler 26%
Melton 19%
Hohrn 11%
Fair 3%
Other Candidates 7%
Undecided 7%
Brad reminds us about the parameters of this poll:
Why we are doing this: We have several friends in the Jackson Mayor’s race but no candidates who are clients. We are intrigued by the dynamics of this race and have decided to do some survey work for public dissemination.
About the survey. This sample of 500+ voter phone households is a rough approximation of historical voter registration and turnout. While we do track the respondents self-identification by age, race, and gender we have not weighted the survey by these demographics or by voter frequency. . . . .
Methodology We used an interactive, automated call with keypad responses to record results. The numbers are scrambled and randomly dialed with a quota of respondents by ward. As the name suggests, our ZATAPULSE takes the pulse of the electorate. It is not an “MRI”. It is a useful tool for short surveys of this nature and we have used it for more than 200 races across the country. We employ a similar methodology as Survey USA or Rasmussen. Still, the tool has limits. We caution you that this race is fluid and that each candidate is likely to have a more robust, internal poll. Nonetheless, we are confident that this is the most accurate, timely information that is publicly available.
About Zata3 Zata3 is a political consulting firm for Democratic candidates and progressive causes. Company President Brad Chism splits time between his Washington, DC and Jackson, MS offices. For each of the last three years, Zata3 had won more awards by the AAPC for its telephone voter contact programs than any other firm in America. For more information, go to www.zata3.com
My two cents: Let's see what happens when the Federal trial kicks back into gear. Will it create pro-Melton backlash?
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