Who Are These Guys?

I was looking at the Jackson Free Press post-election article on the election, which lists the top donors to the two Democratic campaigns:

The Candidates' Top 10 Individual Campaign Donors

Marshand Crisler

• Willie Bozeman, WB Consolidated, Terry, Miss.: $10,000

• Dudley Hughes, Hughes Oil Company: $10,000

• Larry Johnson, Landmark Homes: $10,000

• Charles Pickett, CP Development, Terry, Miss.: $7,500

• William Mounger: $5,500

• Dick Molpus: $5,200

• Leland Speed: $5,000

• Samuel L. Agnew, Environmental Technical Sales Inc., Baton Rouge: $5,000

• Wade Creekmore Jr., Ridgeland: $5,000

• James Creekmore: $5,000

Harvey Johnson Jr.

• Velma Johnson: $10,000

• Willie Wilson, Illinois business owner: $9,000

• Michael Matthews, consultant with LSG Strategies Services, of Washington: $5,000

• LSG Strategies Services: $4,305

• Richard Boykin, of Boykin & Associates, LLC: $3,000

• Ranjit Dhaliwal, Jackson business owner: $3,000

• Doug Dale, Jackson architect: $2,500

• Areeb Sadaat, Garrett Enterprises: $2,000

• John McKee, ABMB Engineers: $2,000

• George Schimmel, Jackson retired physician: $1,250

I was intrigued that Michael Matthews, consultant with LSG Strategies Services, gave $5,000, and LSG Strategies Services itself gave $4,305, to Harvey Johnson's campaign.

LSG Strategies claims to be a "full services targeting, grassroots organizing, and phone contact firm," according to their Web page. Their client list includes many Democratic Party oriented organizations such as Democratic National Committee (DNC), Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC), Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), etc., and several State Democratic parties (but not the Mississippi Democratic Party).

According to Matthews' bio page on the LSG Website, "Michael Matthews most recently was the Political Director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) for the 2002 election cycle. Prior to his tenure with the DCCC, Mr. Matthews served as Political Director to the 2000 Gore/Lieberman presidential campaign. . . .

* * * *
"Mr. Matthews has spent 20 years in campaign politics. In 1986 he managed former U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy's first congressional campaign. In that historic election Mr. Espy became the first African American elected to Congress from Mississippi since Reconstruction. As the general consultant for Harvey Johnson Jr. in 1997, Matthews played a key part in another historical election when Mr. Johnson became Jackson, Mississippi's first African American mayor."

Here's what I don't get: Wouldn't you expect a campaign consultant to be receiving money from a political campaign, not giving money to one? What's up with this? Or did LSG donate free services? If so, why?

Zata 3 "Turnout-Weighted" Map Shows Force of Hurricane Harvey

This map from Zata3 illustrates the turnout in each voting precinct in the Democratic Mayoral Primary run-off election on Tuesday. It is a stunning picture.

Voting For Mayor

Like most of the people I have spoken or corresponded with on the issue, I have had a difficult time deciding how to cast my vote for Mayor of Jackson. I do not see either of the Democratic candidates as a disaster; nor do I see either one as a savior.

The two men have far more in common than their partisans will admit. The JFP's excellent analysis of the two candidates is worth your time; the Clarion-Ledger's Sunday piece is also helpful.

I detest the caricatures that have been cast like stones in this campaign (and plastered on my car): Marshand Crisler as the tool of business interests, who will favor the white community, and Harvey Johnson as overly race-conscious, who will favor the African-American community.

In my opinion, both men are Democrats in the national sense of the word -- they plan to govern as liberals (meaning they believe in the power of government to lead problem-solving in the community) but from a pro-economic development, pro-law enforcement perspective.

I previously posted my basic thoughts about the Johnson/Crisler runoff; I will not repeat myself here. I will simply state the two central reasons why my vote in the run-off is for Marshand Crisler (Of course, I don't speak for Matt or any other resident or visitor in my World).

First, Councilman Crisler seems more willing than Mayor Johnson to approach law enforcement from a consolidated, county/city model. He may not re-appoint Sheriff McMillin as police chief, but he will certainly require the JPD to work with the Hinds County Sheriff's Office to minimize turf conflict and duplicative efforts and secure the most efficient, effective crime prevention program for the City. Given Robert Johnson's endorsement, one wonders if the former Chief might be re-appointed to that post in a Crisler Administration; that would be a welcome move.

Second, Crisler is more likely to maintain the momentum for business and economic development in the City. Harvey Johnson can rightly take credit for the Convention Center complex. But government projects can only initiate economic development; to complete the job, the private sector must be engaged and motivated. That's the secret of every national Democrat's success, from Wilson through FDR, JFK, LBJ, and Clinton, and it's the model of the Obama Administration (Geithner-haters notwithstanding).

The small number of non-residential permits granted during the Johnson Administration, as compared to the Melton term (an eight-fold increase), is an objective indicator of Mr. Johnson's lack of appreciation of the role of the business community in building Jackson. And it's clear that the business community returns the favor.

One other point: some have said that Crisler will be "Frank, the Sequel." The question whether Deputy Crisler's "took a bullet" encounter actually happened during an invalid house raid is fodder for those concerns. See the posts on Jackson Jambalaya, which first brought these issues to light. But it's worth noting that Crisler was 25 years old then, a relatively new deputy, and unlike others in his unit, was not charged with wrongdoing at the time.

And unlike the late Mayor, Marshand Crisler has experience in local government, both as a Councilman and in the Sheriff's Office. Frank Melton, all too often, thought running government was like running a medium-sized business -- the top gun gives the orders and watches as the squad obeys. Crisler has been overseeing city government for eight years and knows better than that.

My vote is for Marshand Crisler. I hope he prevails in the runoff and in the general election. But I won't be upset if Harvey Johnson is the victor instead. Even if this is the "As Good As It Gets" election, Jackson will take great strides forward under either Democrat.

The "As Good As It Gets" Election

Jackson mayor foes win endorsements (Clarion-Ledger, May 13, 2009)

So what now, Jackson? Former Jackson Police Chief and Mississippi Commissioner of Corrections endorses Marshand Crisler; State Senator John Horhn endorses Harvey Johnson.

I admit to some ambivalence at this stage. My main concern in the first primary was to prevent Mayor Melton from being re-elected. That was doubly accomplished on Election Night. As I see it, Harvey Johnson is well versed in the analysis of municipal government. He has studied, taught and consulted on urban planning throughout his career. He served two terms as Mayor and began several projects (Convention Center, Telecommunications Center) that are just now coming to fruition. My gut tells me that he's more able to call his own shots than Councilman Crisler.

But while Harvey Johnson knows urban government in theory, he was less than artful in practice in his previous terms. His relationships with the Legislature and other metro-area mayors were strained. His own former police chief, Robert Johnson, has endorsed his opponent.

Jackson is not a self-sufficient island. Can Harvey Johnson build the support we need to lead the City forward?

Marshand Crisler is young, assertive, and obviously connected to law enforcement and the business community. The endorsement of both Sheriff McMillin and former Chief Johnson speaks volumes in his favor. Also, the consolidation of city and county law enforcement, which Crisler supports by way of re-appointing McMillin to be Chief of JPD, may be a far more efficient and effective means for addressing municipal crime. Further, Crisler is the only former City Council member to run for Mayor; that is an experience that may bring a politics of consensus-building to city government that has been sorely lacking in recent years.

But one wonders about the slightly too "well-prepared" Crisler. Does he speak his own mind, or is he a little too "connected" to business and law enforcement interests? And Kingfish at Jackson Jambalaya has raised some critical questions here and here that have yet, in my opinion, to be put to rest. We've suffered one "Lone Ranger" Mayor; would a Mayor Crisler follow the Constitution even when it's inconvenient to do so?

It's not an easy choice. The pay rate for Jackson's CEO can't be expected to draw out the "Best and the Brightest" -- and the job is a political graveyard, not a stepping-stone to higher office. So, to steal Jack Nicholson's line, this choice is "As Good As It Gets."

We have a week to decide . . .

Weekend Zatapulse Survey

Zata 3 has released the results from its Zatapulse Survey taken on May 1, 2009:

Harvey Johnson 26%

Crisler 26%

Melton 18%

Horhn 11%

Fair 4%

Others 7%

Undecided 8%

The results from the Zata 3 and Clarion-Ledger polls are similar with respect to the order of candidate preference, and roughly speaking, the chasm between the top two "ABM" candidates and the rest. If these polls are anywhere near correct, the best chance to oust Mayor Melton in the first primary is to vote for either Harvey Johnson or Marshand Crisler on Tuesday. A vote for Horhn and Fair will decrease the results for the two leaders, and thereby give Mr. Melton a chance to catch up with one of them. In 25 years of casting votes here, I have learned that ANYTHING can happen in a second primary in Mississippi. We don't need to take that risk.

Jackson's Groundhog Election Day? Opinion Poll By Neutral Consultant Shows H. Johnson, Crisler, and Horhn chasing Mayor Melton for Lead

My friend Brad Chism, President of the political consulting firm Zata3, has just released the results of a 500+ person poll in the Jackson mayoral race. Brad says that:

"We have several friends in the Jackson Mayor’s race but no candidates who are clients. We are intrigued by the dynamics of this race and have decided to do some survey work for public dissemination.

Wednesday night we conducted a random sample survey of 500 Jackson voter households. We asked about candidate preference and strength of support."

The main results:


Melton is in first place with 27% of total respondents. 35% of his supporters are "absolutely sure" they will vote for him.


H. Johnson is the lead challenger, with 20% of the total. 21% of his supporters are "absolutely sure."


Crisler is in a close third with 18% of total. 13% of his supporters are "absolutely sure."

Horhn is at a surprising 6%, with only 5% of his supporters saying they are "absolutely sure" they will vote for him.

Fair is right behind Horhn with 5% of the total; 6% of his supporters are "absolutely sure."

All Others split 11% of the total; 12% were undecided.


Brad gives us some brief observations:


"The race is very fluid. Based on this work and other surveys we have seen, at least four people are seriously in contention for the runoff."

"As Jere Nash observed recently, Frank Melton’s trial and the flap over his residency may have boosted his numbers considerably. (This survey occurred on Wednesday-- Melton hired a new police chief that day) ." Note: this is a point that several of us have already made. See http://jimcraigsworld.blogspot.com/2009/03/return-to-never-neverland.html


Brad continues:


"If the election were today, Melton would almost certainly be in the runoff. A rematch from 4 years ago is not implausible.


This will all change a lot when the candidates go up on TV and radio and hit the streets with canvassers.


Again, this is all fluid. For example, a few minutes ago Crisler got McMillan’s endorsement and we understand that fundraising is beginning to pick up for Crisler, Hohrn and Johnson.


About the survey. This sample of 500 voter phone households includes 70 completed surveys in Ward 1 and 65 in each of the other wards. This is a rough approximation of historical voter registration and turnout. We have not weighted the survey by voter frequency, gender or age. The pivot tables in the attached chart may be manipulated to see ward-by-ward results. We caution you not to draw too many conclusions by ward as these sample sizes are small. You can also adjust the pivot tables to see survey results by race.

Methodology. We used an interactive, automated call with keypad responses to record results. As the name suggests, our ZATAPULSE takes the pulse of the electorate. It is not an “MRI”. It is a useful tool for short surveys of this nature and has been used in more than 200 races across the country. We employ the same methodology as Survey USA or Rasmussen. Still, the tool has limits. We caution you that this race is very fluid and that each candidate is likely to have a more robust, internal poll. Nonetheless, we are confident that this is the most accurate, timely information that is publicly available.

About Zata3. Zata3 is a political consulting firm for Democratic candidates and progressive causes. Company President Brad Chism splits time between his Washington, DC and Jackson, MS offices. For each of the last three years, Zata3 had won more awards by the AAPC for its telephone voter contact programs than any other firm in America.

For more information, go to www.zata3.com"


The Takeaway Point From the Survey: So if the election were held today, the Democratic runoff would be between Mayor Melton and former Mayor Johnson. A "Groundhog Day" election . . . which Jackson may be doomed to repeat again and again?