Today, they've posted a piece from MSU's political guru (and father of Starkville mayor-elect Parker Wiseman) Dr. Marty Wiseman. Dr. Wiseman figures that, since the population of the Delta is down, and the populations of GOP stronghold counties like Rankin, DeSoto, and Madison have increased, that the MSGOP will benefit:
So, at this point, what do these numbers mean? First the lines are already being drawn in the battle of the respective parties to save seats for the partisan debates ahead. The Democrats by virtue of their majority position should have somewhat the upper hand, at least as far as the House is concerned. But the census numbers are clearly working against the Democrats on their home turf. The 44% population increase in DeSoto County makes it the 32nd fastest growing county in the nation, and in Mississippi that is seemingly a big gain for the Republicans. Thus, as things currently appear the numbers alone would portend a shift in several districts from Democratic leaning to Republican leaning.
The problem with Dr. Wiseman's idea is that population growth in historically GOP-leaning counties doesn't automatically equal more Republican voters in those counties. I don't have any numbers to support this, and perhaps Dr. Wiseman does, but from my personal observations, the areas of Rankin and Madison that were once havens for white flight (and thereby GOP voters) are now substantially more demographically complex.
There is one area where Dr. Wiseman is dead-on, however:
If the current philosophical battles over the budget are any indication, the war to come over the partisan makeup of the legislature for the decade of 2011 to 2021 will be one for the ages.
Amen.
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